“Look at the people who are canceling their subscription early on, look at the people who are making it through that period, and look for the behavior that is different about those two groups — try to figure out early on what is indicative of risky behavior, what is signaling valuable behavior, try to bend the product in those directions.”

Compare Early Cancelers vs Survivors to Find the Onboarding Behaviors That Predict Retention

Reid DeRamus describes a simple but powerful cohort analysis: split early cancelers from survivors and find the behavioral divergence in the first session, day, or week. The behaviors that separate the retained cohort become the signals to optimize onboarding toward — whether that's watching a show, completing a workout, or hitting a specific feature. This is the most objective way to find the activation event without guessing.