“Every click you're losing 10% of your users. I have to install Netflix's app store, get a big scary sheet — I'm a normie, I don't know what this is but it looks scary. Then navigate inside and click again, another big scary sheet. By the time you get to the end of this chain — 30% comes at you real fast when you compound a couple gates.”

Two scare sheets + every click loses 10% = compounding conversion loss

Apple inserts two Apple-controlled scare sheets in the sideloading flow: one to install the marketplace, one for each app inside it. Each is a friction point Apple controls. The compounding effect roughly recreates Apple's 30% cut as conversion loss instead of fee — the friction IS the moat.