“the best way of getting ahead of churn is not basing retention off of payments it's basing off of some sort of core action in the product...improving core activation and the core habit will always improve churn”

Track Core Habit Actions, Not Payments, To Predict And Prevent Churn Before It Happens

Payment status is a lagging churn indicator. A user can have a live subscription for months while behaviorally they've already churned — they've just forgotten to cancel. Dan's approach: define the core action that delivers value in your product (checking the weather, sending a Slack message, completing a lesson), and track whether users perform it on the expected cadence. When that habit breaks, churn is imminent. Intervening there is far more effective than any win-back campaign.