“Everybody's a temporarily embarrassed first-rate millionaire. Somebody's going to accept these terms, somebody's going to end up becoming a viral hit and then they're going to owe Apple millions of dollars. The beauty of the old models — Apple bore all the costs, this developer just shared their revenue.”

Free downloads + CTF = catastrophic tail risk if you go viral

Jacob's warning: the new terms invalidate the no-risk rev-share model that made the App Store work for indies. A viral free app with low LTV could owe millions in Core Technology Fees per install. The 2% fee savings don't compensate for accepting that tail risk.