“There's kind of three main buckets of why people might turn from a consumer subscription: they hit a natural breaking point with your use case, something happened with their payment method, or they didn't see the value. Not all churn is literally bad — some of it is natural.”

Not all churn is bad — three buckets (natural, billing, value-gap)

Caroline splits churned subscribers into three audiences — natural lifecycle exit (e.g. students graduating), involuntary/billing, and value-gap — because each needs a different lifecycle treatment. Treating all churn as failure leads to wrong win-back messaging; sizing each bucket changes where you spend effort.