“You look a bit more deep and you realize oh a lot of people are putting the auto-renew off at the beginning and what they're doing is they're asking for a refund and then they're getting the offer — so you are actually like net negative.”

Winback campaigns can go net-negative when users exploit the cancellation offer to grab a refund

A winback campaign that looks great on surface metrics can be destroying value underneath. When users learn that cancelling auto-renewal triggers a discount offer, some deliberately cancel, claim the offer, then request a refund — netting you nothing (or less). Always check refund and chargeback rates alongside win-back conversion before calling the campaign a success.