“LTV is particularly hard in the early days. What I advise people to do is think more about your range of possible outcomes. You're getting a directional estimate at best — so run a range of scenarios and assign some probabilities to them, come up with your best estimate, start making decisions, and go back and check it every month or two.”

LTV is a terrible metric to buy against — use capped time-horizon cash flow predictions instead

Falzon argues 'lifetime' value is literally incalculable — cohorts from six years ago still renewing mean there is no finite lifetime to average. The practical alternative: cap LTV at a specific time horizon (2-3 years is common), separate payback period as a distinct metric, and run scenario analyses with probability weights rather than claiming a single LTV number. Early-stage companies need tight payback periods because they lack cash; mature companies can extend payback windows and buy against longer-horizon projections. The wrong approach is picking a single LTV number and treating it as fact.