“Your success on the web if you had to boil it down to two key data points or two key numbers that matter it's very much your conversion through the funnel and your renewal at the end of the first subscription cycle. It's easy to get distracted by the former and not think deeply about the latter.”

Two Numbers That Actually Matter on Web: Funnel Conversion and First-Cycle Renewal

Lucas frames web subscription health with two metrics: (1) how many visitors convert through the funnel given a fixed ad spend, and (2) how many of those subscribers renew after the first billing cycle. Most apps obsess over the first and neglect the second. The renewal rate is the real indicator of LTV and the efficiency of the whole web channel investment.