“There's a lot of tourists in that group that start a trial or convert a trial, and a lot of people are targeting off of that — as these methods become less good, it'll force developers to actually talk to users.”

Optimising Facebook on trial conversions acquires tourists, not locals

Optimising Meta campaigns on trial starts targets the event easiest to drive, not the users who will pay for three years. High trial volume with weak long-term retention is a tourist-acquisition machine dressed up as growth. ATT degrading that signal is arguably a gift: it forces a shift toward understanding why locals convert and building acquisition around those behaviours — lower volume, far better LTV.